A recent study by the University of Michigan has raised significant concerns about the feasibility of the United States’ ambitious electric vehicle (EV) mandates. According to the study, current copper mining rates are insufficient to support the transition to renewable energy and EVs by 2035, as outlined by the Inflation Reduction Act.
The Copper Conundrum
The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, mandates that by 2035, all cars manufactured in the U.S. must be electric. However, this transition faces a significant hurdle: copper. EVs require three to five times more copper than traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Additionally, substantial amounts of copper are needed for upgrading the electric grid to support these vehicles.
Copper Demand by the Numbers
To illustrate the scale of the challenge, a standard Honda Accord requires about 40 pounds of copper, whereas an electric version of the same car needs nearly 200 pounds. Wind turbines also have high copper demands, with onshore turbines requiring about 10 tons each and offshore turbines needing even more. Adam Simon, a professor of earth and environmental studies at the University of Michigan, states, “The amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce.”
Historical and Future Copper Production
The study, conducted by Simon and Cornell University researcher Lawrence Cathles, examined 120 years of global copper mining data. They calculated the copper required to upgrade the U.S. electricity infrastructure and vehicle fleet to renewable energy. The findings revealed that the copper needs for renewable energy would exceed what current copper mines can produce.
The Permitting Problem
A significant bottleneck in increasing copper production is the permitting process. On average, it takes about 20 years from discovering a new copper deposit to obtaining a permit to build a mine. This lengthy process hampers the ability to quickly ramp up copper production to meet rising demands.
Global Copper Needs
The researchers found that to meet the world’s copper needs between 2018 and 2050, the world would need to mine 115% more copper than has been mined throughout history up to 2018. This figure does not even account for the additional demand from the green energy transition. To electrify the global vehicle fleet, as many as six new large copper mines must be developed annually over the next several decades.
Alternative Solutions
Given the impracticality of fully electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet by 2035, the researchers suggest focusing on hybrid vehicles. “A Toyota Prius actually has a slightly better impact on climate than a Tesla,” Simon notes. By producing more hybrid vehicles, the transition to renewable energy becomes more achievable.
The Global Context
The study also highlights the need for copper in developing countries. Approximately 1 billion people still lack access to electricity, and 2 billion people need clean drinking water. Copper is essential for building the infrastructure to meet these needs. Thus, there is a tension between the copper needed for the energy transition and for developing infrastructure in less developed countries.
Policy Recommendations
The researchers hope that policymakers will consider copper as a limiting factor in the energy transition and reallocate resources accordingly. Simon states, “We think our study highlights that significant progress can be made to reduce emissions in the United States. However, the current – almost singular – emphasis on downstream manufacture of renewable energy technologies cannot be met by upstream mine production of copper and other metals without a complete mindset change about mining among environmental groups and policymakers.”
A Call for Realistic Goals
The University of Michigan study provides a critical reality check on the U.S. goal to fully transition to electric vehicles by 2035. While the ambition is commendable, the practical limitations of copper production necessitate a reevaluation of these targets. Focusing on hybrid vehicles and considering the global demand for copper can lead to more sustainable and achievable energy transition goals.
Alternative Materials or Technologies
What do you think? How can policymakers balance the demand for copper in renewable energy with the needs of developing countries for infrastructure development? What alternative materials or technologies could be developed to reduce reliance on copper in the renewable energy transition? How can the mining industry’s permitting process be streamlined to meet rising demands without compromising environmental standards?
For an in-depth look, read the full article on the University of Michigan News’ website here.
